Task-offload tools improve productivity and performance in geopolitical forecasting


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Publication Details

Output type: Conference proceeding

UM6P affiliated Publication?: Yes

Author list: Juvina I., Larue O., Widmer C., Ganapathy S., Nadella S., Minnery B., Ramshaw L., Servan-Schreiber E., Balick M., Weischedel R.

Editor list: Ion Juvina1
, Othalia Larue1
, Colin Widmer2
, Subhashini Ganapathy1
, Srikanth Nadella2
, Brandon
Minnery2
, Lance Ramshaw3
, Emile Servan-Schreiber4,5, Maurice Balick4
, and Ralph Weischedel6

Publisher: CEUR Workshop Proceedings

Publication year: 2020

Journal: CEUR Workshop Proceedings (1613-0073)

Volume number: 2558

ISSN: 1613-0073

URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85081613814&partnerID=40&md5=2b17fdd681d0ca9280f2ff709bde1f38

Languages: English (EN-GB)


Abstract

Recent studies in geopolitical forecasting have identified psychological variables that predict forecasting accuracy. We studied the effect of providing human forecasters with automated information search and task management support tools. Our research aimed to determine whether use of the support tools could explain additional variance in forecasting performance above and beyond psychological variables. We found that the provided tools encouraged participants to do more work (i.e., information search, communication, reflection, etc.), which in turn resulted in improved forecasting performance. © 2020 CEUR-WS. All rights reserved.


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Last updated on 2021-22-09 at 16:03